A rate cut in January 2025 did not outperform a rate hold in January 2026. Jan 29, 2025 (-0.25 cut) sales were essentially flat to slightly softer from before – during – after.
Jan 28, 2026 (0.00 hold) Sales increased during the announcement week, even with no rate cut. Lower rates alone did not trigger more activity. Confidence mattered more than policy. This year buyers were more comfortable operating in the rate environment suggesting adaptation, not hesitation.
Active real estate markets like ours are truly efficient, and respond less to the direction of rates and more to certainty about where rates are going.
